"A currency war would be very bad for the entire economy. China has an increasingly important pull," said Ashraf Laidi, chief executive officer of Intermarket Strategy Ltd, a London-based research firm. "Its bargaining power has increased. If the U.S. points fingers, it will be even worse for the dollar."
Also, isn't the U.S. more of a services-led economy these days anyway? Aren't "we" trying to export more to "them?" Fast food chain Yum Brands (YUM, Fortune 500), for example, now generates more revenue from China than in the U.S.
Luxury good retailer Coach (COH) is rapidly expanding its presence in China as well. Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) also has aggressive plans to open more stores in China.
Do we really want to open up the door for China to retaliate and slap tariffs or more onerous restrictions on American companies?
"To change the trade dynamics between the U.S. and China is a tricky, delicate manner. You can't use a sledgehammer," said Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist with BMO Capital Markets in Chicago.
"The repercussions will be swift and negative. There are other ways to address the issue that could be more productive," he added.
Can China save Europe?
It would be one thing if China could truly be singled out as the only major nation on the planet that manages its currency.
But as I've pointed out, the U.S. does it too. And one man's currency "manipulation" is another's currency "intervention." Many countries play funny games to move the value of their paper up or down.
The central banks of both Japan and Switzerland have taken steps this year to rein in the surging yen and franc. Both currencies have been bid up in speculative "safe haven" trades this year due to the deteriorating outlook for the dollar and euro.
Each country, but especially Japan, felt it necessary to act to protect their own economic interests. A runaway yen could be disastrous for Japan since it would make goods sold by companies ranging from Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC) to Sony (SNE) and Panasonic more expensive overseas.
Sure, there is a difference between stepping in to stop the free markets from running amok and letting the free markets do their job in the first place.
But make no mistake. Everybody "manipulates" their currency in some fashion. The U.S. needs to recognize that and move on. Working with China, as opposed to more heated rhetoric, can help solve some of the world's economic problems.
"The party that loses the most in a trade war is the one that has a big deficit. We have a big dependency on China," said Axel Merk, president of Merk Mutual Funds, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based money manager specializing in currency investments.
"If you are always complaining about your lawn, you should cement it over and not have grass. It's always easier to blame somebody else for your own problems," Merk added.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney, and Abbott Laboratories, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stocks.
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